SECTION 1

Field Conditions

The past week has been dry and cool across the network — ideal for getting equipment moving, but soil temperatures have stayed stubbornly low. Most producers have made good progress, and we have several clients who are wrapped up or expect to be by the weekend.

What's telling is how cold its been: we walked some first-planted wheat fields yesterday — seed that went in over two weeks ago — and it has barely sprouted. No disease, no rot, just sitting there waiting for heat. That's your ground truth for how slow this spring has actually been.

The 7-day window ahead does us no favours on soil temperature. Today is your best field day of the week — 23°C air, dry, SE wind. Thursday brings a small chance of rain and strong south winds. Friday clears but gusts near 80 km/h will shut down sprayer operations. The back half of the 7 day outlook turns wet, with Sunday carrying 80% chance and nearly 10 mm. 

SECTION 2

 MARGIN MAKER? 

It's the question we've fielded more than any other this past week: "Is it too cold to plant soybeans?" It's the right question — and the answer is more nuanced than the old rule of thumb suggests.

The traditional recommendation has been to wait for 10°C soil temperatures, measured in early afternoon. Research funded by Manitoba Pulse and Soybean Growers and led by Kristen MacMillan at the University of Manitoba gives us a more complete picture. Across 11 site-years at Arborg, Carman, Dauphin and Melita from 2017 to 2019, soybean yields showed no statistical difference among planting dates from May 1 through May 24. The window is more flexible than the old 10°C rule implies — but it comes with a hard condition attached.

Cold soil temperatures within the first 48 hours of seeding were the culprit at the site-years where early planting hurt. Chilling injury, delayed emergence, increased susceptibility to soil-borne pathogens — and at three site-years where soils hit 0 to 1.1°C, yield was reduced 13 to 19% in the very early seeding window. The calendar date wasn't the problem. What was in the forecast was.

Link to the Report

Antara Insights - Soybean yield study looking at the effects of an extreme cold rain and temperature event occuring May long weekend  during the 2025 growing season. 

We saw the same story play out in our own Antara Insights Benchmarking data last year. Producers who seeded just ahead of the ice-cold rain and below-zero nights around the May long weekend didn't necessarily see a drop in emergence percentage — stands looked ok. But the yield data at harvest told a different story.

A 5–10 bu/ac yield penalty. At current prices, that's $60–$120/acre in unrealized profit — on acres that looked ok all summer.

Science and our own network data are saying the same thing: soil temperature alone isn't your only trigger. Check the 48-hour forecast after the seed goes in. One cold rain event at the wrong time can cost you more than waiting two or three days for a better window ever would.

The rule: Soil temp, yes — but also check what's coming. Avoid seeding soybeans if cold rain and/or temperatures below zero are in the forecast for 2 to 3 days after planting.

SECTION 3

IN THE TRIALS (From Jenn)

One of our growers came to us looking for a way to handle their cereal straw without baling every acre, so we set up a trial with a stubble digester — a microbial inoculant that is applied after harvest and lightly incorporated into the soil — to see whether it could speed up residue breakdown and move soil-health metrics in the right direction.

After one year on our initial site, soil testing suggested that a 2x rate produced modestly better microbial activity than the label (1x) rate or the untreated check, which was enough to justify a more rigorous look.

We've since moved the work to a multi-year site that will follow the grower's full rotation. The trial compares four treatments across rate and timing — a split 1x spring/fall application, a single 2x fall pass, a single 3x fall pass, and an untreated check — with all fall applications and the second spring 1x pass now in the ground ahead of seeding. We're starting to layer in water-infiltration testing and have already pulled penetrometer readings across each strip to see whether we can actually quantify improvements in the soil, and identify the rate-and-timing combination that pencils out.

For an average RRV operation, the value of a clear answer is twofold: every acre that doesn't need to be baled is valuable nutrients returned to the ground, and faster residue breakdown means better seedbed conditions, nutrient cycling, and infiltration heading into the following spring.

This is an industry-funded trial, so the data is not ours to share publicly unless the company chooses to release it — but farmers in our OFRN will get the full picture as it comes in, so join the group if you want access to the detailed results. This is the first full year of the multi-year protocol, with definitive results expected at the conclusion of the grower's rotation.

SECTION 4

GROUND LEVEL

Every farmer we talk to wants local, replicated, unbiased data. What they don't always want is to pay for it — or take the time to generate it themselves.

That's a problem. And it's about to get worse.

The recent announcement of the closure of several federal agricultural research facilities means the pipeline of publicly funded, locally relevant agronomic data is getting thinner.

Our own On-Farm Research Network is in its 7th growing season. Commodity groups are stepping up. Commercial on-farm networks are expanding — the Smart Farms network and the recent AIVA (Agriculture, Innovation, Validattion and Adoption Network) announcement are early signals of where this is heading, with farmers as direct participants in evaluating new technologies and practices on commercial ground. That's the right direction. But it only works if farmers decide to play.

Mike Palmier, an MNP agronomist out of Western Saskatchewan, said something at a Canola Council research event this past winter that stuck with us — Jenn was on a panel with him. He said every farmer should have an R&D line item on their expense budget. We believe that wholeheartedly.

It's never been easier to run a proper on-farm trial. GPS, yield monitors, application maps, scales, NDVI imagery — the data layers available on a modern farm are exponential compared to what we had ten years ago. The tools are there. What's missing, for a lot of operations, is the discipline to use them intentionally.

This is exactly why we built what we built at Antara. Our On-Farm Research Network, our AgWeather stations, and our Antara Insights Benchmarking program all exist for one reason: to give our clients local, scientifically replicated data they can actually make decisions with. If you don't measure it, you can't manage it — and right now, the farmers who are measuring have a widening edge over those who aren't.

The hesitation is real. We see it every year. First-year cooperators are nervous — about the time commitment, about disrupting their operation, about whether it's worth it. Almost without exception, by year two it's routine. Non-invasive. And the data starts compounding in value.

What's this kind of data worth?

Here's the reality: the gap between farmers who invest in good information and those who wing it is measurable in bushels. We saw it last year in our own Insights data — timing decisions alone accounted for 5 to 10 bushels per acre in soybeans.

At today's prices, that's $50 to $120/acre in unrealized profit sitting on the table

There's always a better way. But you have to be willing to look for it — and willing to invest for the information that helps you find it.

Starting now: If your operation doesn't have an R&D line item in next year's budget, add one. Then ask us how to put it to work.

— Bru, Jenn, and the Antara team